Lots to cover in this week’s Hypergrowth Investing podcast! Prepare yourself for a hefty discussion on retail earnings, housing data, cryptos, and whether Michael Burry is right to make a rare “Doomsday Call” on the economy.
Front and center, we’re seeing a lot of growth stock buying among “smart money,” which is code for “hedge funds.” Think folks like David Einhorn and Ray Dalio – two hedge fund managers whose reputations precede them. And this quarter, the pair have invested in one of my top electric vehicle stocks to watch: Rivian (RIVN).
If that isn’t a bullish sign, I don’t know what is.
The bottom line here is that when these funds get into names, they tend to do so with high conviction. That means Einhorn and Dalio could be invested in RIVN stock for years. The fact that they both initiated stakes in Q2 of 2022 means they see a compelling long-term future with Rivian.
As do I.
It’s significant that this is happening during a time of high momentum for the EV space – and clean energy technology in general. With soaring gas prices, EV sales are hitting record highs at a time when nothing else is. The passing of the Inflation Reduction Act, dubbed “the climate bill,” fuels this fire. Naturally, I love this industry right now. In particular, I really love Rivian stock.
Let me contextualize: With my wife and I expecting another child, we’ve started our search for a roomier electric vehicle. But we’ve run into a problem: There are very few seven-seater EVs on the market right now. And there’s even fewer that are worth buying.
Rivian aims to solve this problem with its upcoming R1S. My use case aside, Rivian is debuting the right car at the right time. Which means it has near-term potential as well as long-term potential.
Michael Burry Isn’t Bullish
While I see great things on the horizon for growth stocks, not everyone shares my admittedly rose-colored vision. It’s a little funny – or maybe a little scary – but Michael Burry of The Big Short fame sold everything last quarter. And he picked up one stock – private prison operator Geo Group (GEO).
This is obviously a doomsday move.
Burry is a super bear right now and is expecting the labor market to tank and crime to take off. At least he’s putting his money where his mouth is.
Something to keep in mind: Michael Burry has a knack for these things. He’s made fortunes in the dot-com crash and financial crisis, when no one else would listen to his bearish forecasts. So, let’s take Burry’s doomsday call as a reminder of the risks to the bull thesis that we have right now. Instead of rushing into the markets and buying blindly, let’s walk. Let’s take our time and allow the bull thesis to play out in full.
A Housing Market Crash?
On that note, the more housing market data that comes in, the dourer things seem. Homebuilder sentiment is down to levels that are very rarely seen. Housing starts are poor. Lots of inventory remains in the market, and we’re seeing price cuts and delays on closing. Not to mention, the 30-year mortgage rate is bouncing around like crazy. And that’s all got things at a near stand-still.
Ultimately, with disinflation, I think those mortgage rates are going to head lower. And that should allow the housing market to start to stabilize. Previously, I’ve said that we’re just resetting to a normal here, not crashing.
I still believe that.
The bottom line is that the housing market got way too hot in 2021, and now we’re normalizing. That means we’re going to see several months of negative home price appreciation, down volume, price cuts. But it’s only several months – not several quarters or several years. By the end of the year, things will firm up as the Fed takes its foot off the gas with rate hikes.
In 2023, the market should return to more solid ground, and we’ll start growing once again. Now, most people are confusing this reset with a crash. And I think this is creating a pretty compelling opportunity in housing stocks.
They’re massively discounted and due for a great 2023 – but they’re also due for a volatile next few months.
Overall, the thesis on housing remains unchanged for me. Remember: The housing market has only crashed once in 50 years, and that was 2008-2009. That was thanks to significant overbuilding and significant overleverage. We have neither today.
On the date of publication, Luke Lango did not have (either directly or indirectly) any positions in the securities mentioned in this article.
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