USD retains its strength. Review for 16.08.2023

The major currency pair maintains relative stability on Wednesday. The current EURUSD exchange rate stands at 1.0910.

Retail sales volume in the US in July increased by 0.7% month-on-month. The data exceeded expectations: forecasts suggested a 0.4% increase contrasting with the 0.2% upturn seen the previous month. On an annual basis, the index rose by 3.2%. Excluding the automotive and spare parts segment, the indicator rose by 1% m/m.

US import prices increased by 0.4% m/m in July rebounding from a 0.1% decline in June. Export prices saw a rise of 0.7% m/m.

These collectively signal strong pro-inflationary trends. But the US Federal Reserve System is highly unlikely to mention this in today’s release of the minutes of its last meeting. Nevertheless, they must be taken into account when predicting the Fed’s future actions.

Presently, the market is awaiting a pause in the series of monetary policy tightening by the Federal Reserve come September. However, doubts about the outlook are increasing – a glance at the USD dynamics is enough to attest to this.

The USD continues to benefit from global risk aversion, driven by developments in China, among others.